I have been dealing with the Singapore and Bangkok property market for many years. The Singapore property market for about two decades and the Bangkok property market for one. I am a shareholder of a property agency in Bangkok and the agency deals with international clients. I run regular webinars on the legal and tax matters when purchasing Bangkok properties as well as webinars on the various locations to consider when looking at Bangkok properties.
If you have ever attended any of my webinars, you would have seen this particular slide.
This is a Venn diagram which I created. I usually talk about these four factors as things investors should apply their minds to when looking to invest in a certain city. In such instances, investors would be comparing various cities when looking at buying an overseas property. For example, a Singaporean may be considering whether to purchase a property in London, Australia, Thailand or Vietnam. In this case, what is his method of comparison? What metric should he peg one country against another?
I broke this down into 3 columns which essentially are 4 essential factors to consider. These are the same exact 4 factors that a rational buyer would consider when deciding whether to purchase property in that jurisdiction.
The 4 factors are:
- Whether the country has a robust legal system
- Whether there is a prevalent resale and rental market
- Whether there is economic growth
- Whether the country is socially and politically stable
Factor 1: Whether the country has a robust legal system
When I use the word robust, I am referring how well the legal system in the country is able to react to disputes. In other words, whether property buyers and owners have legal recourse to matters. If a buyer purchases from a developer and the developer does not deliver on its promise. For example, in the event that the property delivered is not what was promised like if the unit is smaller than what was stated in the sales and purchase agreement. In such an instance, can the buyer take the developer to court and if he can, will it be restrictively high? Or will it be difficult to sue the developer?
Then there is the consideration as to whether contracts in a certain country hold any weight. If a landlord enters into a contract with a tenant, will parties respect the contract. If one party breaches the contract, will the recourse be effective. Can the court in that jurisdiction grant the remedies that the other party seeks. It may be in the form of damages or specific performance.
When you are thinking of legal matters, you would also need to consider whether foreigners can actually hold property in their name. It would be a lot safer for the property to be held in your personal name rather than having to set up complex trust structures to own properties. For example, foreigners are not allowed to own properties in Indonesia. In such cases, an Indonesian company would be set up and the foreigner would own a certain number of shares of the company with the rest being held by one or more local nominees. The Indonesian company would then own the property. This, to me, raises many concerns. Most notably would be if the nominees decide to stake a claim in the property. Such an arrangement is also to circumvent certain restrictions which were put in place to restrict foreign ownership. It is not clear whether such arrangements would hold in court. Therefore, when purchasing properties, it is important, to me, that the title deed bears your own name.
Factor 2: Whether there is a prevalent resale and rental market
When we enter into an investment, we need to consider whether there is an exit strategy. It is easy to say that you will hold the property for a certain number of years before selling it off. However, a property is extremely illiquid. Even in a very vibrant property market, you will need time to sell the property. It is not like stocks where you can go to the stock market and get a sale done very quickly.
In this case, before you make a purchase, you will need to think of the platform which you will be selling your property on. It may not be you who will be selling off the property. It may be your agent who is doing the selling. However, you should know what are the platforms available that can reach out to prospective buyers.
If you are looking to collect rent on your property, you will need to ensure that there is a market for tenants and landlords. You should see signs of this market on property platforms. A simple example of this would be what we have in Singapore in the form of PropertyGuru. Therefore, as for overseas purchasers, you will need to see whether the property market which you are entering has a PropertyGuru equivalent. A platform that actively has new listings with older listing being taken up gradually.
Factor 3: Whether there is economic growth
Property prices move in tandem with economic growth. This is because the local demand for property is typically the main driver for property prices, not overseas buyers. Yes this can be a revelation and a shock to some but it is true as the sky is blue. I have heard many buyers remarking that the local Thais do not have the money to purchase condominiums. However, the truth could not be further from the truth. The locals purchase way more properties than the foreigners. There is good reason for them to do so as well. They see it as a good hedge for inflation. It is not uncommon for an upper middle class Thai family to own multiple properties.
Therefore, you must look at whether there is economic growth in the country. An extreme would be Burma or Ukraine. War ravaged countries hare little economic growth and prospects. This is one of the main reasons why property prices in these countries are not rising.
Economic growth presents itself in many ways. A simple way to measure would be to look at the country’s reported gross domestic product (GDP). However, this number is usually indicative of how the economy has performed and not an indication of how it will perform. We need to know that there will be economic growth in the future to predict if there will be a possibility that the overall wealth of the country will rise and consequently, property prices will move in the same trajectory.
Look out for whether the country is open to trade. Is it part of some greater plan? Like how Thailand, namely Bangkok is in the centre of China’s One Belt One Road initiative and hence has a mega rail network in place to be a conduit for Chinese goods and services to the rest of South East Asia.
Other countries should have such plans as well. Consider them wisely and decide whether this is something that would aid in the wealth creation of that country. Not every government in the world is as wealthy as Singapore’s. Spending on big ticket infrastructure projects will typically yield healthy returns in the future. Look out for such plans from these governments.
Factor 4: Whether the country is socially and politically stable
Social stability refers to when a country is collectively stable. It has a fixed set of norms and is unlikely to change. When you are looking to invest, a socially stable environment is more ideal than one that is not socially stable. Imagine a situation where the society is unstable. One where there is racial unrest and general distrust among certain groups in society. In comparison, a socially stable society is one like Singapore where various races live harmonously together. Social norms are well developed and in general, there is little to no civic unrest.
Political stability refers to the stability of the ruling party or government of the day. To have political stability is to allow the ruling party to follow through with their plans for the country. Imagine one government coming up with certain policies and plans to advance the economy and then losing the next election. The next government then reverses on the policies and goes in a totally different direction.
Social stability and political stability do not need to move in tandem. For example, Thailand can be said to be very socially stable. There is a general acceptance of foreigners in the country. Buddhism is the main religion with religious freedoms granted to other religions. The various races live harmoniously together. However, Thailand is extremely politically unstable. It changes government extremely frequent. In such a situation, one can argue that even though the government changes frequently, the consideration should be whether the general direction of the governments that follow veer in a similar direction as the ones that came before.
There are other factors which I did not consider
Those 4 factors, in my humble opinion, should form the backbone of your thought process when investing in overseas properties. They are other factors but these factors which I will postulate are not universally applicable. One such factor is proximity to your place of residence. For example, after comparing Bangkok and New York, I may decide that New York is a better property investment destination. However, because it is far away from my place of residence, Singapore, I will not consider it because I am not someone who likes to travel such long distances to deal with my property if ever I needed to. Another consideration would be communication. While some people may pick London over Bangkok because the mode of communication in the UK is English, this may not be a consideration for someone who understands Thai.
Therefore, while there are other factors for consideration, I would urge buyers to stick to my first 4 factors before moving on to any additional factors. Those 4 factors can and should be applied by every buyer looking to invest in an overseas property. It applies to any individual of any nationality resigning in any country who is looking to purchase properties outside of his or her country.
In closing, I cannot stress the fact that every investment comes with a certain level of risk. Buyers need to understand these risks. Naturally, as you are not a resident of the country which you are investing in, overseas property investment is usually frought with a higher degree of risk. However, knowing what to look out for can aid a buyer to mitigate such risk.
Yours sincerely,
Daryl
