Let’s take a closer look at Singapore’s 2Q2026 private residential data
The headline number is 0.5 per cent. Singapore private home prices rose again in the second quarter of 2026. If you are selling a property, that is probably the number you will repeat. If you are buying, it is the number someone will repeat to you.
But what exactly rose?
According to the final figures from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), landed property prices rose by 2.5 per cent in the second quarter. Non-landed property prices fell by 0.1 per cent.
That is a 2.6 percentage point difference between the two segments. Put them together and the overall index increased by 0.5 per cent.
Sounds like the whole private property market went up? Well, not quite.
The headline is correct. It is also incomplete.
Let us be clear. The URA did not get the number wrong. The overall private residential price index increased from 218.3 in the first quarter to 219.4 in the second quarter. That works out to a 0.5 per cent increase. The pace was slower than the 0.9 per cent rise in the previous quarter.
The problem comes when we take an island-wide index and use it to describe every property as though the market moved in one direction.
It did not.
Landed prices had fallen by 0.4 per cent in the first quarter. They then rose by 2.5 per cent in the second quarter. Non-landed prices did almost the reverse. They rose by 1.3 per cent in the first quarter and slipped by 0.1 per cent in the second.
So then, if you own a condominium and someone tells you that private home prices rose by 0.5 per cent, does that automatically mean your unit became 0.5 per cent more valuable? No. The non-landed index actually moved slightly lower. Even that non-landed number is too broad to price a particular unit.
URA itself states that private residential prices are not uniform and vary from project to project. That may sound obvious, but it is often forgotten when a headline number is convenient.
The non-landed market was split as well
Now look at the regional numbers for non-landed properties.
The difference between the CCR and RCR was 3 percentage points in one quarter.
This is why I do not think buyers should keep repeating the line that the CCR is weak while the mass-market regions are always the safer bet. That may be the popular narrative for a period of time. It is not something that we should focus when we are investing in property.
In this quarter, the CCR rose while the RCR and OCR fell. In another quarter the positions may reverse. The point is not to declare that the CCR has permanently returned or that the RCR and OCR are now poor investments. The point is that the market is segmented. Your conclusion should depend on what you are actually looking at.
A one-bedroom unit in the CCR, a family condominium in the RCR and a landed home do not have the same buyer pool. They do not face the same supply. They do not even move according to the same sub-index. Why then should one headline be used as the answer for all three?
What does the URA index actually measure?
URA uses what is called a stratified hedonic regression methodology. In plain English, it tries to control for differences in the properties sold, including attributes such as age and unit size. The price movements are then aggregated using fixed weights covering five quarters.
This is sensible. Imagine one quarter with many small new units sold and another quarter with more large resale units. A simple average price could move merely because the mix of homes changed. The methodology tries to reduce that problem.
However, the index is still meant to show a broad trend. It is not a valuation report for your property.
If you want to know whether a particular unit has risen in value, you should look at transactions in the same project, then compare similar unit sizes, floors, facing, condition, tenure and transaction dates. If there are few comparable transactions, accept that the answer will be less certain. Do not fill the gap with an island-wide headline just because it is available.
A busy market can still have softer prices
There is another interesting point in the second-quarter data. The market recorded more transactions.
Resale transactions increased from 3,225 units in the first quarter to 3,813 units in the second quarter. That is an increase of about 18.2 per cent. Total transactions, excluding executive condominiums, rose from 5,413 to 6,148 units, or about 13.6 per cent.
Yet the non-landed price index fell by 0.1 per cent.
More sales do not automatically mean prices must rise. It can mean buyers and sellers were more willing to meet. It can also reflect the mix of projects and regions transacted. The official data gives us the result. It does not give us permission to invent one neat cause for every movement.
This is where property commentary often becomes too convenient. When prices and volumes rise together, people say demand is strong. When volumes rise but a segment softens, the same people may simply ignore the volume or switch to another explanation.
My stand is simpler. Read the numbers together and be honest about what they do not prove.
The supply story is not a one-line answer either
URA reported 42,472 private residential units, including executive condominiums, in the supply pipeline with planning approval at the end of the second quarter. Of these, 15,810 units remained unsold. There were another 18,153 unsold units without planning approval, including the 4,745 units on the confirmed list of the Government Land Sales programme for the second half of 2026.
Does this mean prices must fall? No.
Pipeline supply is not the same as keys being handed to buyers tomorrow. Sites need to be sold, planned, launched and built. Demand and the type of homes supplied will matter as well.
But it also means we should be careful when someone says property prices must keep rising because Singapore simply has no supply. The Government has been releasing a high and steady supply of private housing. The full-year 2026 confirmed-list supply is 9,320 units, more than 50 per cent above the annual average over the past decade.
Scarcity can be true for a specific product or location. It is less useful as a blanket explanation for the entire market.
So what should a buyer do with the 0.5 per cent number?
Use it as the start of the question, not the answer.
- Identify the correct segment. Are you looking at landed or non-landed property?
- If it is non-landed, identify the region. CCR, RCR and OCR moved in different directions in the quarter.
- Look at the project and comparable transactions. The broad index cannot price your unit.
- Separate market activity from price direction. More transactions do not guarantee broad price increases.
- Consider upcoming supply, but be realistic about when that supply will actually reach the market.
- Work out whether the property makes sense for your finances and holding period without assuming that a quarterly index will repeat itself.
The last point is the most important. If the investment only works because you assume the overall index will keep rising every quarter, then the investment case is weak. A property has to make sense based on the price paid, the financing cost, the holding period, the realistic rental or own-use value, and the pool of future buyers.
My view is that the 2Q2026 data is not a crash signal. It is also not a clean bull-market signal. It is a picture of a divided market where landed homes and the non-landed CCR moved up while the RCR and OCR softened.
The 0.5 per cent headline is accurate. Just do not mistake the headline when pricing your property. Or even when offering on a property.
Yours sincerely,
Daryl Lum
